Within three months of arriving in the country, the CMF had largely withdrawn from Zimbabwe. Phase type Country years Table 3. No No n. Yes Yes n. No Yes n. No No Hostilities? As shown in Table 3. Although peace agreements were signed by representatives of the government and several opposition groups during this period, military hostilities resumed between government troops and a rebel group in northern Chad in September Of the 15 cases that did not involve a multidimensional PBM, seven cases Therefore, the rate of escalation to military hostilities was more than twice as high for the cases not involving multidimensional PBMs than the cases involving multidimensional PBMs.
What effect does the establishment of a multidimensional PBM have on the likelihood that the parties will formally settle their dispute? Dispute settlement occurred in only seven of 30 cases At the same time, only two of the 15 cases After a civil war lasting some eight years and resulting in the deaths of some , individuals, Emperor Haile Selassie of Ethiopia facilitated the signing of a peace agreement between the parties in February Beyond the repatriation of some , Sudanese refugees by the UN, there were no substantial peacebuilding efforts by third-party actors in the strife-torn country.
Overall, the evidence regarding the relationship between multidimensional PBMs and dispute settlement is similar to the evidence regarding the relationship between multidimensional PBMs and military hostilities. The rate of dispute settlement was more than twice as high for cases involving multidimensional PBMs than cases not involving multidimensional PBMs.
Among the remaining 15 cases in which third-party actors did not establish PKMs, four cases This evidence suggests that PKMs alone do not decrease the likelihood of military hostilities, probably because peacekeeping personnel are normally deployed by third-party actors in the situations that, for one reason or another, are at a higher risk of escalating to military hostilities. Is there any evidence that simultaneous multidimensional PBMs and PKMs decrease the likelihood of military hostilities? The evidence from the 30 cases suggests that this combination may indeed reduce the risk of military hostilities see Table 3.
As shown on the left-hand side of Table 3. One of these eight cases was Nicaragua, where the government of President Somoza Debayle was toppled by Sandinista rebels following a month civil war in July A civil war broke out between the Sandinista government and opposition groups i. Overall, the rate of escalation to military hostilities was twice as high for the cases not involving simultaneous multidimensional PBMs and PKMs. There is also evidence that the combination of multidimensional PBMs and PKMs affects the likelihood of dispute settlement, as shown on the right-hand side of Table 3.
Nevertheless, negotiations failed and military hostilities resumed in March Among the cases that escalated to military hostilities was the Philippines, where government troops and communist rebels fought a civil war between January and December Third-party peacemaking alone may not have a substantial effect on the likelihood of a dispute escalating to military hostilities, but does the combination of peacemaking and multidimensional peacebuilding have a substantial effect? In fact, there is considerable evidence that this combination does have an effect.
As mentioned earlier, military hostilities resumed in July Nevertheless, the crisis escalated to military hostilities between government troops and Patriotic Movement of Ivory Coast rebels beginning in September As shown on the right-hand side of Table 3. In the case of El Salvador, the UN-coordinated multidimensional peacebuilding and peacemaking efforts following the signing by representatives of the government and leftist rebels of a framework for peace negotiations in Geneva in April On the other hand, only three of the 20 cases 15 percent that did not involve simultaneous multidimensional PBMs and PMMs were peacefully settled.
The multidimensional PBM included reconstruction assistance, human rights monitoring, civilian police monitoring and election monitoring between September and February Of the 22 cases that did not involve coordinated multidimensional PBMs, eight cases On the other hand, coordinated multidimensional PBMs do not seem to matter when it comes to dispute settlement. Mullenbach hypotheses developed in this study, two important caveats are in order.
Civil Society Key for Sustaining Peace in Liberia
First, although this study was broader than many case study analyses of the effectiveness of third-party peacebuilding, it was neither as broad nor systematic as it could have been. It is possible that an analysis of a different set of 30 cases or a statistical analysis of more than 30 cases would yield a different set of results.
Second, this study involved bivariate analyses of independent and dependent variables. While not all cases of dispute phases involving multidimensional PBMs lead to peace and not all dispute phases not involving multidimensional PBMs lead to war, it is clear that the cases involving multidimensional PBMs are more likely to result in peace than cases not involving multidimensional PBMs. Indeed, the goals of multidimensional PBMs are more likely to be achieved if one or more third-party actors are simultaneously providing for a secure environment through the deployment of peacekeeping personnel.
In addition, the goals of multidimensional PBMs are more likely to be achieved if one or more third-party actors are simultaneously engaged in facilitating or mediating negotiations between the parties. While only minimal evidence of a positive effect of coordination was found in this study, it is reasonable to conclude that it would be counterproductive for competing third-party actors to initiate and undertake contradictory or inconsistent peacebuilding Reconstructing strife-torn societies 75 efforts in strife-torn societies.
Notes 1 See J. Goodhand and D.
Cousens and C. Kumar, with K. Wernester eds. Flournoy and M. Wermester eds. Smoljan, 76 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Mark J. Candio and R. Holiday and W. See G. Dempsey with R. See C. Crocker and F. See J. Hamre and G. See A. Stedman, D. Rothchild, and E. Cousens eds. A multidimensional peacebuilding mission MPM refers to any third-party peacebuilding effort involving two or more different dimensions of peacebuilding, including economic, humanitarian, legal, military, and political.
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Civil Society Key for Sustaining Peace in Liberia | GPPAC
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